Buyer guide
The 2026 DDR5 memory shortage: what Australian server buyers need to know
By Nicholas Dodemaide, Director · Updated · 5 min read
DDR5 prices have risen about 450% in a year because AI servers and HBM production are absorbing DRAM supply. A 16 Gb DDR5 chip went from US$8.70 in October 2025 to US$48 in September 2026, and Team Group expects the tightest supply from Q4 2026 to Q2 2027. Lock memory in with the server order.
What happened
Memory makers have shifted capacity to high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators, while AI servers each need terabytes of DDR5. Standard DRAM supply has not kept pace, so contract and spot prices have moved together, sharply up.
| Indicator | Figure | As at |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Gb DDR5 chip, contract price | US$8.70 rising to US$48 | Oct 2025 to Sep 2026 |
| 32 GB DDR5 server RDIMM, spot | about US$2,185 | October 2026 |
| 64 GB DDR5-6400 RDIMM, Australian retail | A$4,513.20 (one listing) | November 2026 |
| PC DRAM contract prices, forecast | up 13% to 18% | Q4 2026 |
How long it lasts
Team Group's chief executive said on 2 November 2026 that the shortage has not peaked and will be tightest from Q4 2026 through Q2 2027. Spot prices dip from week to week, but contract prices, which set what distributors pay, are still rising.
How to protect a server build
- Quote memory with the server, not after it. A server without memory is the most common delay this year.
- Fill every memory channel at a smaller module size rather than half the channels at a larger size; it is faster and often easier to source.
- Accept equivalent modules from more than one maker where your platform validates them.
- Ask for a price hold in writing; most quotes in this market are valid for days, not weeks.
Common questions
- Will DDR5 prices fall in 2027?
- Not in the first half on current forecasts. Team Group expects supply to be tightest from Q4 2026 to Q2 2027, and new fabrication capacity takes years to add.
- Are Chinese-made DDR5 modules cheaper?
- Not at the moment. Reporting in 2026 shows modules with CXMT chips priced at or above Samsung and SK hynix equivalents.